Making A Fair Odds Line

Over time, I’ve gotten many inquiries about fair odds lines — largely, how does a horseplayer go about making one and what are they good for?
Let’s kick off the discussion with the last question — after all, what’s the use in creating something without knowing what it does? (I’ve seen enough science fiction films to know this is a terrible thought ) In other words, a fair odds line provides gamblers with a way of earning logical wagering decisions.
As an example, many players know that gambling to win a horse that’s 2-5 or less doesn’t make a lot of sense. To earn any money on such steeds, a gambler would need to money at least 71 percent of the time, which is extremely unlikely (not to mention how the place and show payoffs will likely be just as high or even higher than the win yield in some cases, creating a win wager look that much more foolish).
However very few punters take the upcoming logical step and assign specific minimum betting chances to all (or even some) of the race contenders.
This is the point where there comes a fair odds line from.
A fair chances line tries to quantify a handicapper’s feelings about a particular race and provide a framework for better money management decisions. Statements like”I knew I must have used that horse” are, theoretically at least, foreign to a person who uses a fair chances line on a normal basis.
This is because stakes are created — or not made — based on if the horse in question is an overlay (post-time odds greater than its fair odds) or underlay (post-time odds less than its fair odds). As a result, the angst of determining whether or not to include a horse in the wagers isalso, in consequence, made by the gambling public.
Thus, without further ado, let’s move on to the main course — constructing the line:
A) For every horse, assign odds which you believe are fair. If it will help, use the morning line for a guide.
B) Combine these chances to some proportion.
C) Insert all the individual percentages together to get the entire line percent. Whether this number is precisely 100 percent (plus or minus a few tenths of a point due to rounding discrepancies), you have what’s known as a”true” line, which is exactly what I personally strive for.
But lots of value handicappers prefer to mirror the tote board and include takeout and breakage at the equation. In cases like this, a entire line percentage of up to 125 percent is OK. Beyond that, though, I would suggest re-calculating or massaging your fair odds. Perhaps the horse you recorded at 2-1 should be 5-2 instead. Perhaps a couple of the horses you tabbed at 15-1 should be 20-1. Continue making adjustments like this before the entire line portion matches your goal.Of program, I’m mindful of the fact that this can be easier said than done and will almost surely require training and a reasonable amount of patience. Underlays you pitched will win — sometimes at or above their fair odds, as a result of an influx of late money to the swimming pool; overlays you wagered on will magically transform into underlays for the same reason.
But do not give up. Bear in mind, most bettors lose since they gamble too many underlays. The legendary punter George E. Smith (“Pittsburg Phil”) stated it best when he noted:”You cannot be a thriving horse player if you’re going to find the worst of this cost all the time.”
Fair chances make certain you don’t.
Now, before I leave this subject there are two important things to think about as you proceed across the path toward becoming a value bettor:
1) A horse is not an overlay or underlay simply because your fair odds say it is. After all, your line could be — and in many cases is — wrong.
Do not get too cocky and dismiss the crowd’s opinion entirely. If a horse that you believe should be 5-2 is 20-1 about the board, ask yourself why. Is there something that you missed, a element that you weighted too heavily or too softly? To put it differently, look for mistakes in your calculations before you rush into the chimney to bet your life savings.
Furthermore, be certain to test your fair odds. They ought to win in the rate you say they do. What’s more, they ought to keep winning at the rate (or quite near it) as the actual odds vary. If your 2-1 shots win a third of the time overall, but only one percent of the time once the horse is a designed overlay, you have definitely got a problem.
2) In regard to your fair chances line , it pays to remember something that gambling guru Dick Mitchell learned in the class of his fair odds studies. After years of looking for a lineup that adequately reflected the performance of the best three wagering choices (again, contrary to that which racetrack charlatans proclaim, the gambling pools are generally efficient), Mitchell heard a television commentator discuss the”80/20 rule.”
First advanced by company consultant Joseph M. Juran, the 80/20 principle, or Pareto Principle, is the belief that 80 percent of consequences stem from just 20 percent of all causes. 20 percent of the world’s population control 80% of its resources, 20 percent of the folks on Earth have 80 percent of their talent (not necessarily the exact same 20 percent, mind you) and so forth and so forth.
From a gaming perspective, Mitchell realized that a reasonable odds line should reflect the exact same fundamental truth. Hencehe started assigning 80 percent of his ratings to his high contenders and the rest 20 percent to the rest of the area — with excellent success.
I bring this up as most rookie line manufacturers will find that their honest odds are too much like — a lot of 3-1, 4-1 and 6-1 chances — and not too reflective of real-life betting trends (which should always be one of the goals). From reassigning 80 percent (or thereabouts) of their probabilities to the best choices, this can be avoided.
Hopefully this helps aspiring value bettors become more proficient at their craft and, being Pittsburg Phil explained, avoid becoming the”worst of the price all the time.”

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