Best Bets – John Deere

John Deere Classic

TPC Deere Run — Par 71 — 7,268 yards After another predictable birdie-fest at a new occasion and new place, the PGA Tour heads to a comfortable place for your John Deere Classic this past week. Amidst all of the schedule changes on Tour this season, the John Deere maintained it’s spot the week before the British Open, together with the usual place in that Open Championship available to the highest finisher here not qualified.
Like the past two months, the TPC Deere run is a course that is normally lit up by birdies over the course of four days, and since so many young guns are blistering these birdie-fest tracks the past two weeks, we have got the odd phenomenon where guys that are now in a variety of stages of their”newcomer” seasons on Tour encounter this event as the favorites.
Former Oklahoma State golfer Matthew Wolff announced his presence to the Tour with his win in Minnesota last weekend, also to get a PGA Tour win as well as the reigning NCAA Individual winner in the same year is quite an accomplishment. At +2500 this week, Wolff is among the favorites, but it is his former collegiate teammate Viktor Hovland (+1800) who will hold that honor. Behind him, it is another guy who had been playing collegiate golf — Collin Morikawa (+2000) — beneath the chances list, with younger men like Sungjae Im (+2200), also Joaquin Niemann (+2200) in there too. You would have to examine the old vet Zach Johnson (+2500) as the sole man over age 21 to be costly among the favorites, as these young guys are just letting it rip and benefiting from soft classes and even softer areas.
Advertisement This area is one of the weakest annually in terms of established names given that lots of those men are already overseas preparing for the Open Championship, but only because those young names have shown up in spades the past two weeks, does not mean that TPC Deere Run may be best suited to them. Yes, it’s a really easy course that can observe guys go low in a rush, but generally, past winners of this tournament have at least teed it up at TPC Deere Run in competition once before, and of all those youthful names I’ve previously mentioned, just Niemann – 23rd at 2018 here — could boast that he has.
Expertise has shrunk to a degree here, as you’d better be able to hit plenty of greens in regulation and get hot with the putter to have an opportunity, or be Zach Johnson who’s got one win, six Top 3 endings, along with seven Top 5 finishes here the previous 10 years. However, if Johnson is your”prototype” for your skill set you are searching for from men here, and motivation stemming from maybe earning that closing Open Championship place, you will find other names in the field this week that you ought to keep a watch out for.
Listed below are 3 golfers whom I’ve got my eye on for just those reasons.
Golfers to See Daniel Berger (+3000) — Berger was a young guy that held lots of promise Tour, but he’s dropped off a bit on the past 8months as his name quite occasionally pops up on a leaderboard. He’s really fought with his strategy, scrambling, and placing this calendar year, which isn’t ideal to be financing at all, but in a field in this way, in a place where he’s got a 5th place finish on his resume in his only beginning (2017), maybe this is the week which Berger begins to find his game again.
To do so, Berger better start hitting some GIR’s, as he rankings 162nd on Tour in that category this year, but there were signs of improvement lately with three Top 50 finishes in three of his last four outings. The best of the bunch was last week at the 3M Open with a T15, thanks to each of four rounds being from the 60’s, an dthe 23 birdies that he made for the week might be a indication of things to come.
His best finishes in the 18-19 season have come at the events where you typically need to go low, and with not qualified for a place overseas next week, the additional motivation to participate in that Major for the third consecutive year has to be playing in his head too. Berger’s got all the ability to put it together this week, and he’s shown throughout his career on Tour that he’s no stranger to becoming scorching hot to get a round or two to put himself right in emptiness. At 30-1 odds, I’m willing to back that being the situation this week.
Kevin Tway (+4000) — Tway wouldn’t match the model mould of becoming a Zach Johnson type participant, as he’s about as bomber as bomber gets on Tour, but outside of some tough putting numbers — something I have said time and time again that are extremely unpredictable on a week-to-week foundation — Tway has improved his game in every other aspect this year.
Tway comes into the week ranked 44th on Tour in GIR percent – (68.23) — that is easily Top 20 in this week’s field. His birdie average might be much better when he could find a hot flashes for a couple of days, but TPC Deere Run does concur with him to the extent he did possess a 12th place finish here two years ago. His general course will come in handy here when he’s keeping the ball in play, and when he can use that span on the Par 5’s to go low there, it will take a few decent scoring on the Par 4 — where he’ll have plenty of brief clubs in his hands to find himself among the leaders.
And like Berger, Tway is just another man who’d like to make that trip overseas next week, as he has never played in an Open Championship in his profession that’s surprising since his father Bob played in the Open Championship 16 times throughout his days on the PGA Tour. With two leading 20’s in his last four starts, all it may take for Tway to become among the leaders would be to locate his putting stroke over the weekend this week, also with experience reading the greens at TPC Deere Run, he is a good candidate to do so.
Johnson Wagner (+10000) — Further down the plank is where Johnson Wagner sits, since this man is just another who’s yet to shake his ticket overseas next week as he’s not been included in an Open Championship since 2013. But he’s coming off a T23 last week in Minnesota, and ranks third in the field behind Charles Howell and Talor Gooch at GIR % at 70.57%. You give yourself a birdie look of any span at TPC Deere Run 70% of the time and eventually the birdies will start to drop, particularly when you rank 23rd in Strokes Gained: Placing on Tour like Wagner does.
Shorter classes fit him much better as he’s not long at all off the tee (280.7 meters average), and he’s only got to make sure he could assure himself that all those birdie looks are within reasonable range rather then 30+ footers that generally lead to tap-in pars.
Luckily, TPC Deere Run has always been kind to him because recard, as his five starts since 2014 have resulted in finishes of 16th, 5th (twice), 7th, and one missed cut. That is too good of a course history to discount at this cost, with those GIR amounts this season, and if Wagner can just get his irons dialed in to the four times, this might wind up being a good cash back.
John Deere Classic Odds
Viktor Hovland 18/1
Collin Morikawa 20/1
Joaquin Niemann 25/1
Matthew Wolff 25/1
Sungjae Im 25/1
Zach Johnson 25/1
Brian Harman 28/1
Charles Howell III 28/1
Kevin Streelman 28/1
Lucas Glover 28/1
Daniel Berger 30/1
Ryan Moore 30/1
Kevin Tway 40/1
Wyndham Clark 40/1
Kyle Stanley 45/1
Sam Burns 50/1
Bud Cauley 55/1
Joel Dahmen 55/1
Ryan Palmer 55/1
Bronson Burgoon 66/1
Cameron Tringale 66/1
Jason Dufner 66/1
Mackenzie Hughes 66/1
Martin Laird 66/1
Nate Lashley 66/1
Scott Brown 66/1
Talor Gooch 66/1
Denny Mccarthy 75/1
J.T. Poston 75/1
Jhonattan Vegas 75/1
Peter Malnati 75/1
Beau Hossler 80/1
Brian Stuard 80/1
Cameron Champ 80/1
Danny Lee 80/1
Dylan Frittelli 80/1
Harold Varner III 80/1
Joey Garber 80/1
Nick Taylor 80/1
Nick Watney 80/1
Pat Perez 80/1
Sam Ryder 80/1
Sepp Straka 80/1
Troy Merritt 80/1
Vaughn Taylor 80/1
Austin Cook 100/1
Brice Garnett 100/1
Carlos Ortiz 100/1
Johnson Wagner 100/1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 100/1
Roger Sloan 100/1
Andres Romero 125/1
Andrew Landry 125/1
Doc Redman 125/1
Hank Lebioda 125/1
Jonathan Byrd 125/1
Kramer Hickok 125/1
Luke Donald 125/1
Matt Each 125/1
Matt Jones 125/1
Michael Thompson 125/1
Peter Uihlein 125/1
Russell Henley 125/1
Ryan Armour 125/1
Shawn Stefani 125/1
Adam Long 150/1
Alex Prugh 150/1
David Hearn 150/1
Josh Teater 150/1
Robert Streb 150/1
Roberto Diaz 150/1
Scott Stallings 150/1
Seamus Power 150/1
Sebastian Munoz 150/1
Stephan Jaeger 150/1
Trey Mullinax 150/1
Tyler Duncan 150/1
Wes Roach 150/1
Zack Sucher 150/1
Adam Schenk 175/1
Bill Haas 175/1
Dominic Bozzelli 175/1
Roberto Castro 175/1
Sam Saunders 175/1
Ted Potter Jr. 175/1
Adam Svensson 200/1
Anirban Lah

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